2028 ELECTIONS
EDUCATION
“MAHA” POLICY
The November Overton Insights poll examines voter opinions on hypothetical political matchups, including a 2028 Vance-Newsom presidential election.
1,200 registered voters | Margin of Error +/- 2.77% | October 27th – October 29th
Key Political Results:
NOVEMBER 2025
In a hypothetical 2028 presidential matchup between Vice President J.D. Vance and California Governor Gavin Newsom, Newsom leads by 3 points (46% – 43%). Notably, Newsom has an 11-point lead among Independents.
In the hypoethtical 2028 Republican Primary for president, JD Vance leads decisively with 34%, well ahead of Donald Trump Jr. at 22%, Florida Governor Ron DeSantis at 12%, and HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 8%. Trailing further are Secretary of State Marco Rubio with 7%, former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley at 5%, and entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy also at 5%. Vance’s advantage over Trump Jr. has now widened to 12 points, doubling from 6 points in July.
In the hypothetical 2028 Democratic Primary for president, former Vice President Kamala Harris holds a solid lead with 35%, followed by California Governor Gavin Newsom with 23%, former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg at 7%, and Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez also at 7%. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro and Senator Cory Booker are tied at 5% each, while Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer stands at 4%. Minnesota Governor Tim Walz, now at 3%, has seen a sharp decline of 4 points since July, when he stood at 7%.
Voters are unsure who the leader of the Democratic Party is. Gavin Newsom leads at 22%, followed closely by Kamala Harris at 19%, and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez sits at 11%. Newly elected New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani takes 4%, and a plurality of voters (39%) are unsure.
Since our July poll, political homelessness has surged, with 6% more voters now identifying this way (40% overall). Notably, the feeling is stronger among Democrats (36%) than Republicans (27%).
No political figure recorded a positive net approval rating in this poll. The least unfavorable was California Governor Gavin Newsom (-4%). Former Vice President Kamala Harris is 6 points underwater, while newly elected NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani was 8 points underwater. Actress Sydney Sweeney was the sole figure with a positive rating, at +12%.
Government Shutdown:
This year’s government shutdown generates strong concern: 85% of voters say they personally care that the federal government is shut down. Democrats are particularly concerned, with 92% caring compared to 80% of Republicans.
When asked about the shutdown’s impact if it continued for several weeks, 80% believe it will affect the country negatively, though Republicans (72%) are less pessimistic than Democrats (86%). Only 11% of voters see positive effects if the shutdown were to continue.
Voters overwhelmingly reject political violence. Eighty-nine percent disagree with the notion that it is acceptable to commit acts of violence against someone with opposing political views. Only 9% of voters agree with that notion. Republicans disagree by a 77-point margin, while Democrats and Independents disagree by an 82-point margin.
Key Policy Results:
NOVEMBER 2025
Education Policy:
Support for neighborhood microschools is exceptionally strong: 75% of voters would support a small microschool with 25 or fewer students opening nearby in a home, church, or community space. Only 11% oppose the concept, even if basic safety and parking rules are followed. Microschool support is non-partisan with 80% of Republicans, 70% of Democrats, and 76% of Independents voicing their support.
Only 14% of voters believe a college degree is worth it, given the average cost of a bachelor’s degree is nearly $150,000. Another 43% say it’s worth it but only for specific degrees like doctors and lawyers, and 38% say no outright, suggesting widespread skepticism about higher education costs.
Given a choice between an accredited college degree with no guaranteed job or an unaccredited program guaranteeing a well-paying job upon completion, voters overwhelmingly choose the unaccredited program (57%–27%), with 16% unsure. This preference holds across party and ideological lines, indicating openness to alternative credentialing if a job guarantee is included.
"Make America Healthy Again" Agenda:
The Trump-RFK Jr. “Make America Healthy Again” platform is virtually split, with 45% approval and 46% disapproval. It enjoys overwhelming Republican support (+64%) but faces fierce Democratic opposition (-59%).
Key Public Opinion Results:
NOVEMBER 2025
Actress Sydney Sweeney stands as the most favorable person we polled (+12 points), and the only individual with a positive overall split (32%–20%), despite recent controversies surrounding an American Eagle ad campaign she was featured in. Sweeney, who is registered Republican, performs notably better among Republicans (+31%) than Democrats (-4%).
Major League Baseball’s upcoming Automatic Ball-Strike Challenge System (ABS) draws 56% support for allowing teams to challenge umpire calls, versus just 13% opposing.
- Poll of 1,200 registered voters nationwide
- Only respondents who passed our data quality checks were included in the final results and compensated for participating
- Sampling was stratified by demographics and geography
- Results were weighted by demographics, party, geography, and behavioral measures to reflect the profile of the state properly
- Estimated Margin of error: +/- 2.77%
- Fieldwork: October 27 to October 29, 2025
- Due to weighting and rounding, percentages may not always total exactly 100%
