May 2026 National Poll
Press Release: Candace Owens, Ben Shapiro, Erika Kirk all Unpopular Among Voters
New Poll: Candace Owens, Ben Shapiro, Erika Kirk all Unpopular Among Voters
Salt Lake City, UT — Prediction markets continue to favor California Governor Gavin Newsom and Vice President J.D. Vance as the eventual 2028 nominees for their respective parties, but a new Overton Insights poll shows neither would coast to victory if their primaries were held today.
On the Republican side, Vance leads the field with 39% of the vote, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio (32%) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (9%). However, in a one-on-one primary matchup between the two betting favorites, Rubio actually beats Vance by 6 points (42%-36%).
The Democratic field is just as crowded, with former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg leading with 16%, followed by Newsom (13%), Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12%), former Vice President Kamala Harris (9%), and Senator Bernie Sanders (9%). And in a head-to-head matchup between Newsom and AOC, the two most likely candidates according to prediction markets, AOC leads by 8 points (43%-35%). As with our previous poll, the head-to-head matchups were selected based on current prediction market odds, not on where candidates actually stand in primary polling.
In a hypothetical 2028 general election matchup based on prediction markets, Newsom would start as a slight favorite over Vance, leading 44% to 39%, with 9% undecided.
Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham remarked, “Newsom continues to show real strength in a general election matchup against Vance, and you can bet that electability will be the cornerstone of his pitch to Democratic primary voters in 2028. However, the primary numbers tell a different story. Not only has he slipped behind Pete Buttigieg in the overall field, but Democratic voters also prefer AOC in a one-on-one matchup, suggesting real cracks with the progressive wing of the party. If Newsom can’t shore up support on his left flank, the electability argument alone may not be enough to carry him through a crowded primary.”
Cunningham continued, “While Vance is still the frontrunner on the Republican side, the head-to-head matchups should concern the Vice President. Losing to Rubio one-on-one and trailing Newsom in a general election tells me Vance still has a long way to go to solidify his support. Much of this likely comes down to how closely he’s tied to President Trump, whose approval rating is just 32% in our poll. If Vance wants to consolidate the Republican base and stay competitive in a general election, he’ll need to start defining himself on his own terms.”
President Trump’s job approval rating sits at just 32%, with 58% of voters disapproving, putting his net approval a dismal 26 points underwater. With midterm elections just months away and the 2028 cycle already ramping up, these numbers spell trouble for Republicans up and down the ballot if they don’t improve. Vance, the current GOP frontrunner, will likely be tied to Trump’s record whether he wants to be or not, and Republicans in competitive districts will have to figure out how to distance themselves from an unpopular president without alienating his base.
In a pretty surprising result, more than half of Democratic voters (54%) think that the recent attempts on President Trump’s life were staged, while just 29% believe the shootings in Butler and the White House Correspondents’ Dinner were genuine. Overall, a majority (51%) of voters believe the attempts were genuine, while 36% say they were staged. Interestingly, Republicans were the only group (+69%) that believe the assassination attempts on Trump’s life were legitimate.
Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham stated, “It’s frankly pretty shocking to see the numbers around Trump’s assassination attempts. While Trump’s popularity continues to drop, it’s interesting that both Democrats and Independents view assassination attempts on the President, including one where someone was shot and killed, as staged. While the Republican brand continues to falter in polls, it would not be surprising to see Republicans bring up poll numbers like this in an attempt to tie their Democratic opponents to conspiracy theories in upcoming elections.”
Sports betting has become one of the most debated issues at the state level over the past several years, with more and more states legalizing it since the 2018 Supreme Court ruling that opened the door. Even with that rapid expansion, voters in our poll remain skeptical. Though opposition stops short of a majority at 47%, the issue is still underwater (-16%). Only 31% support legalized sports betting in their state, while a striking 22% remain undecided. That level of uncertainty signals a debate that’s far from settled, even as more states weigh whether to legalize sports betting.
Voters have grown deeply skeptical of AI and automation, with 46% saying the technology is a net negative for society, compared with just 17% who say it’s a net positive. Another 34% say the positives and negatives are roughly equal. That skepticism extends to physical infrastructure as well, with 67% of voters opposed to a new data center being built in their community and only 16% in support.
If President Trump were to implement a military draft, two-thirds of voters (66%) say they would oppose it, with only 25% in support and 9% unsure. That kind of lopsided margin signals that any serious move toward reinstating the draft would face stiff political resistance, regardless of how it was rolled out.
Here is a link to the full toplines of the poll.
Here is a link to the full PDF with party and demographic crosstabs.
New Poll: Candace Owens, Ben Shapiro, Erika Kirk all Unpopular Among Voters
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