The May 2026 Overton Insights poll finds that Vance and Buttigieg lead respective primaries, Newsom starts as favorite over Vance in the presidential race, and Owens, Shapiro, and Kirk are all unpopular among voters.
1,377 registered voters | Margin of Error +/- 2.6% | May 16th – May 20th
Key Toplines:
MAY 2026
2028 Presidential Election Polling:
In the Republican Presidential Primary, Vance leads the field with 39% of the vote, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio (32%) and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis (9%). However, in a one-on-one primary matchup between the two betting favorites, Rubio actually beats Vance by 6 points (42%-36%). As with our previous poll, the head-to-head matchups were selected based on current prediction market odds, not on where candidates actually stand in primary polling.
On the Democratic side, former Secretary of Transportation Pete Buttigieg leads with 16%, followed by Newsom (13%), Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (12%), former Vice President Kamala Harris (9%), and Senator Bernie Sanders (9%). And in a head-to-head matchup between Newsom and AOC, the two most likely candidates according to prediction markets, AOC leads by 8 points (43%-35%).
In a hypothetical 2028 general election matchup based on prediction markets, Newsom would start as a slight favorite over Vance, leading 44% to 39%, with 9% undecided.
Political Favorability:
Erika Kirk, Candace Owens, and Ben Shapiro, three figures whose public profiles have become closely linked in recent months, are each viewed unfavorably by voters. While all three of these political figures are drastically underwater with voters, Candace Owens is the most “popular” of the three, with a net favorability rating of -23 points, followed by Erika Kirk (-26%) and Ben Shapiro (-27%). Interestingly, despite all being part of the Conservative movement at one point, only Erika Kirk (+41%) is viewed favorably among Republicans, while Ben Shapiro (-4%) and Candace Owens (-7%) are underwater. While each of the figures is viewed extremely unfavorably among Democrats, Erika Kirk is by far the least popular (-73%).
Each of the controversial national political figures we polled was underwater with voters, with Los Angeles Mayoral candidate Spencer Pratt (-4%) performing the best, followed closely by Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner (-6%). Left-wing political commentator Hasan Piker (-9%) and Florida Gubernatorial candidate James Fishback (-13%) were unpopular, despite a majority of voters having never heard of either.
Recent Attempts on Trump's Life:
Overall, a majority (51%) of voters believe the attempts were genuine, while 36% say they were staged. Interestingly, Republicans were the only group (+69%) that believe the assassination attempts on Trump’s life were legitimate.
- Poll of 1,377 registered voters
- Only respondents who passed our data quality checks were included in the final results
- Respondents were recruited from one source: SMS text message invitations (peer-to-peer) sent to a random sample of cellphone numbers matched to records from registered voter files.
- Survey results were weighted to reflect voting demographics and political composition of the registered voter population in the United States.
- Estimated Margin of error: +/- 2.6%
- Fieldwork: May 16th to May 20th 2026
- Due to weighting and rounding, percentages may not always total exactly 100%
