Austin, TX — In the most closely watched U.S. Senate race, a new Overton Insights/TPPF poll finds Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton by less than a point, 44.0% to 43.4% among 1,167 likely voters. When undecided voters were prompted to pick a candidate (leaners), the race was deadlocked at 50% each.
The poll also tested a slate of Senate hypotheticals that complicate the conventional wisdom about which Republican is most likely to win the Senate race. Despite speculation that Senator John Cornyn, who lost in the Republican runoff to Paxton, would be a stronger general election candidate for Republicans, Cornyn actually trails Talarico by slightly more than Paxton does, 43.6% to 42.7%, compared to Paxton’s 0.6-point deficit.
On the Democratic side, after a heated primary, there has been discussion that Jasmine Crockett, who lost to Talarico, may be a stronger candidate in the general election. However, Talarico performs much better than Crockett in a head-to-head vs. Ken Paxton. Paxton leads Jasmine Crockett by 6 points in a hypothetical matchup against Paxton, while Paxton slightly trails Talarico.
Overton Insights Poll Director Mark Cunningham stated, “It is pretty clear the Texas Senate race is going to come down to the wire. Despite trailing slightly, this is actually a really good poll for Ken Paxton compared to recent polling, showing him well within the margin of error and tied when leaners are included. Paxton is only up by 57 points among Republican voters, while Talarico is up nearly 93 points among Democratic voters, giving Paxton more room for growth in a traditionally Republican state. This poll matches the betting markets, showing that it’s anyone’s race with just two months to go.”
Cunningham also noted, “One of the most surprising results of this poll is that John Cornyn, the establishment Republican favorite who has been consistently seen as more electable of the two candidates compared to Paxton, is actually doing slightly worse in a hypothetical matchup against Talarico. While there are likely a number of reasons for this, it goes against the conventional wisdom in this race.”
In the Governor’s race, Greg Abbott leads Gina Hinojosa by just 1.1 points, 46.9% to 45.8%, with 7.3% undecided. Adding leaners expands the margin only slightly in Abbott’s favor, bumping his lead to 2.4 points. This small lead comes after Abbott last defeated Democrat Beto O’Rourke by double digits in 2022.
Cunningham stated, “While the Senate race was expected to be close because of the quality of both candidates, the Governor’s race being within the margin of error is one of the more surprising results in the poll. Abbott is a fairly popular Republican governor, but it’s clear that the national backlash against Republicans and Trump has brought Abbott down as well. Like Paxton, Abbott has much more room for growth in this race than his opponent, but this race is still up for grabs. Despite a number of close polls, Abbott remains a substantial favorite in the betting markets.”
Trump’s own job approval in Texas has slipped underwater somewhat substantially, with 44.1% approving of his performance and 55.9% disapproving, a net negative of 11.8% in a state he carried handily three times.
“A double-digit negative approval rating in Texas is not a number any Republican strategist wants to see just two years after Trump carried Texas by double digits,” said Mark Cunningham. “Trump’s poor approval rating isn’t just a swing state problem anymore; it’s showing up in one of the party’s most reliable battlegrounds.”
The survey also gauged the early shape of the 2028 presidential primaries. On the Republican side, Marco Rubio (29.5%) and J.D. Vance (28.8%) are locked in a near dead heat, with Ron DeSantis a distant third at 11.2%. Notably, Texas’s own senator, Ted Cruz, who has talked recently about his presidential ambitions, draws just 6.5% support in his home state.
On the Democratic side, Kamala Harris leads comfortably with 28.4%, ahead of a tightly bunched second tier of Pete Buttigieg (14.2%), Jon Ossoff (11.6%), Gavin Newsom (11.5%), and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (10.6%).
While Texas A&M hasn’t won a national title in almost 100 years, the university has claimed a title no fan base wants. The new Overton Insights Texas statewide survey finds Aggie fans edge out Longhorn fans as the most obnoxious fan base in Texas by just over two points (29.7%-27.4%).
The rest of the field trails well behind the two rivals. In a surprising development, the University of Houston fans came in third at 11.2%, ahead of Texas Tech (10.3%), which has gotten much more negative national attention for its use of NIL and the Brendan Sorsby situation. Baylor (9.6%), SMU (6.7%), and TCU (5.1%) rounded out the field.
Our poll also asked about issues like data centers, immigration, and tariffs. You can see the full poll and crosstabs here.
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