Overton Insights Poll: September 2026

Overton Insights Poll: Texas · September 2026

50.0 %

2026 U.S. Senate

50.0%

of the vote goes to each of Talarico and Paxton, a statistical dead heat.

Without leaners allocated, Talarico edged Paxton 44.0% to 43.4%, with 12.6% undecided.

If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?

Includes leaners

James Talarico (D)50.0%

Ken Paxton (R)50.0%

51.2 %

2026 Governor

51.2%

of voters chose incumbent Governor Abbott over Hinojosa.

Without leaners allocated, Abbott edged Hinojosa 46.9% to 45.8%, with 7.3% undecided.

If the election for Governor were held today, who would you vote for?

Includes leaners

Greg Abbott (R)51.2%

Gina Hinojosa (D)48.8%

29.5 %

2028 Republican Primary

29.5%

of Texas likely voters choose Marco Rubio, with 28.8% choosing JD Vance.

Interestingly, Rubio leads the field in the Lone Star State while home-state Senator Ted Cruz draws only 6.5%.

If the 2028 Republican primary for President were held today, who would you vote for?

Marco Rubio29.5%

J.D. Vance28.8%

Ron DeSantis11.2%

Ted Cruz6.5%

Tucker Carlson5.9%

Donald Trump Jr.4.5%

Would Not Vote13.6%

28.4 %

2028 Democratic Primary

28.4%

of likely Texas voters choose former Vice President Kamala Harris.

Buttigieg, Ossoff, Newsom, and Ocasio-Cortez are all in a tight race for second.

If the 2028 Democratic primary for President were held today, who would you vote for?

Kamala Harris28.4%

Pete Buttigieg14.2%

Jon Ossoff11.6%

Gavin Newsom11.5%

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez10.6%

Mark Kelly9.4%

Josh Shapiro3.9%

Andy Beshear0.9%

Rahm Emanuel0.7%

Would Not Vote8.8%

Hypothetical U.S. Senate Matchups

Suppose instead that these were the candidates. If the election for U.S. Senate were held today, who would you vote for?

Talarico vs. Cornyn

James Talarico (D)43.6%

John Cornyn (R)42.7%

O'Rourke vs. Paxton

Beto O'Rourke (D)42.8%

Ken Paxton (R)48.9%

Crockett vs. Paxton

Jasmine Crockett (D)42.8%

Ken Paxton (R)48.8%

38.3 %

How Texans See Texas

38.3%

of voters see Texas as a purple state, meaning competitive between the two parties.

Even 28.7% of GOP primary voters consider their own state to be purple, and voters under 30 see it purple by 64.7% – 30.5%.

Politically speaking, which of the following best describes Texas today?

A red state Reliably Republican57.0%

A purple state Competitive between the two parties38.3%

A blue state Reliably Democratic4.7%

63.6 %

License Plate Reader Cameras

63.6%

oppose ALPR cameras such as Flock.

Opposition crosses party lines, with Democrats (-16.6%) and Republicans (-61.8%) opposing these cameras.

Do you support or oppose local governments' use of automatic license plate reader cameras, such as Flock cameras, at public intersections?

Oppose63.6%

Support28.1%

Unsure8.3%

Methodology

Poll of 1,167 likely voters in Texas
Estimated margin of error: ±2.9%
Only respondents who passed data quality checks were included in the final results
Fieldwork: August 24 to August 26, 2026
Respondents were recruited via MMS text message invitations sent to a random sample of cellphone numbers matched to Texas registered voter files
Results were weighted using iterative weighting across party primary intent, gender, age, education, race, living situation, time in Texas, and political philosophy
Due to weighting and rounding, percentages may not always total exactly 100%

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