January 2026 Utah Poll
Utah Poll: Cultural Divides Emerge in Utah’s Entertainment Preferences
Utah voters have mixed opinions on sports franchise growth and changes, the 2034 Olympic logo, and the Secret Lives of Mormon Wives reality tv show
Poll Analyst
olivia@overtoninsights.com
The Texas Senate race is unusual in that both the Republican and Democratic primaries remain genuinely competitive with the election approaching. On the Democratic side, U.S. Representative Jasmine Crockett leads in most polls by narrow margins, but an Emerson College survey shows state legislator James Talarico ahead by double digits.
Cunningham argued that Talarico is the more electable Democrat in a general election, while noting an ironic wrinkle: Talarico has actually voted further left than Crockett despite coming across as more moderate. The Democratic primary has also grown increasingly contentious, with Cunningham, pointing to racial dynamics as a potential liability.
On the Republican side, the race features longtime incumbent John Cornyn, scandal-scarred former Attorney General Ken Paxton, and upstart Wesley Hunt. Cunningham offered a specific prediction: if Hunt breaks 20% of the vote, Cornyn is the likely nominee; if he stays below that threshold, Paxton prevails. Both hosts agreed that a Trump endorsement of Paxton would effectively end the primary.
The episode also sparked a debate over whether Texas qualifies as a purple state. Cunningham pushed back against the narrative, arguing that Democrats are clinging to the 2018 Beto O’Rourke race despite losing every subsequent statewide contest by significant margins. Melendez countered that most states are more purple than they appear at the national level, and that an off-year election without a presidential race at the top of the ticket creates real opportunity for a Democrat to win statewide.
A recent Rasmussen poll found that the 21-point margin favoring economic growth over economic fairness in March 2024 has collapsed to just 2 points, with 44% now choosing growth and 42% choosing fairness. Melendez attributed the shift to everyday Americans feeling disconnected from headline economic indicators like the stock market and jobs reports.
"Regular people don't feel that at all. They don't necessarily feel that inflation is ended. They don't feel that their wages are keeping up." - Michael Melendez
Cunningham added that Trump’s own populist rhetoric has likely driven some of the Republican shift toward fairness, as the president has increasingly used language emphasizing small business owners and farmers over corporate interests. Both hosts agreed the data reflects a broader realignment, with Republicans moving toward populism and wealthy voters increasingly supporting Democrats.
The episode’s final segment covered the latest Overton Insights statewide poll of 1,000 registered Utah voters. Melendez, who has extensive experience in the state, noted Utah’s unique challenges: a very young population, rapid growth, and cultural factors like the LDS community.
On favorability, newly elected Senator John Curtis emerged as the most popular but least-known statewide politician. Senator Mike Lee, while the least popular overall, was the most popular among conservatives, a trade-off Cunningham called strategically advantageous for Utah. Mitt Romney surprised with a net-positive favorability rating, though he was underwater among Republicans. The policy results were striking. An overwhelming 82% of respondents supported allowing accessory dwelling units in their neighborhoods, and nearly 70% supported microschools being built in their neighborhood, numbers Cunningham called remarkable given the typical gap between supporting a policy in principle and accepting it nearby.
"A lot of times you hear people say, we want more of this or this, but like, no, not in my neighborhood... But people were actually saying, I'm gonna put those in my neighborhood so long as the basic rules are followed." - Mark Cunningham
However, Melendez cautioned that these numbers don’t translate to legislative action. People who oppose housing reform and privacy protections are often far more organized and vocal than the majority who support them.
Respondents also expressed strong support for government surveillance transparency and questioned degree requirements for occupational licenses, policies that still can face opposition at the capitol. As Melendez put it, “the divide in politics is really about who shows up.”
Episode 3 is now live. Tune in for accessible analysis and thoughtful conversation from the Overton Insights team.
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