Director of Polling
mark@overtoninsights.com
Though Vice President Vance has been seen as the clear frontrunner for the 2028 Republican nomination since Election Day, a new Overton Insights poll reveals Donald Trump Jr. could turn it into a nail-biter if he enters the race. In the hypothetical 2028 Republican primary race, Vance leads the field with 36% of the vote, followed closely by Donald Trump Jr. at 31%. Ron DeSantis (13%), Vivek Ramaswamy (6%), and Marco Rubio (6%) trail behind, rounding out the top five.
While Trump’s approval rating has started to drop in polls nationwide, he would actually expand his lead against former Vice President Kamala Harris if the election were held again today. Trump leads Harris by 3 points in a hypothetical redo of the 2024 election (48%-45%), up from his 1.5 point victory in November. However, not all the news is good for President Trump when it comes to hypothetical matchups. Amid buzz about Trump eyeing a third term if the 22nd Amendment were repealed, voters choose former President Obama over him, 53% to 47%. Obama dominates among Independents and moderates, leading Trump by 18 points and 22 points, respectively.
In the 2028 Democratic primary, 2024 presidential nominee Kamala Harris is still the clear frontrunner for the nomination despite her struggles in the last election. Harris dominates the field with 48%, with Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez coming in a distant second with 15%. California Governor Gavin Newsom, who recently made news for starting a new podcast to reach across the political aisle comes in third with 10%. Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro (9%), Michigan Governor Gretchen Whitmer (6%), Maryland Governor Wes Moore (3%), and sports commentator Stephen A. Smith (2%) round out the field.
Tariffs, a hot-button issue since President Trump announced them on Canada and Mexico, split voters in this poll. A plurality (38%) says they harm the economy and drive up consumer prices, while 21% argue they boost the economy by protecting jobs and promoting American-made goods. A substantial 34% take a middle ground, suggesting tariffs offer short-term gains but could raise costs over time.
As surveillance technology and data analytics continue to evolve, voters are showing strong support for more legal protections around their personal data. When it comes to search warrants for digital information (such as Google search history or genealogical DNA databases) — 76% are in favor of stronger legal protections, such as naming as suspect before getting a warrant, while only 17% are against it. With technological advances, personal data like text messages isn’t just on your phone or computer anymore—it’s even stored in your car. When asked, an overwhelming 76% do not believe law enforcement officers should be allowed to access personal information stored in motor vehicles without a warrant while 20% of voters do not think a warrant is necessary.
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